Two co-founders of a nonprofit that studies teen behavior, Sean and Mike, have made predictions about five key indicators: screen time, part-time jobs, sleep, in-person time with friends, and mental health.
One of the indicators is recreational screen time, which currently stands at around two in five teenagers spending four or more hours on screens during the week. A CDC analysis has found associations between high screen use and anxiety and depression.
Both Sean and Mike predict a decline in teen screen time, with Sean expecting the share of teens whose parents report 4+ hours of recreational screen time to fall to 35 percent by 2036, and Mike expecting it to fall to 30 percent. The decline is expected to be driven by new AI hardware that may shift digital activity away from conventional screens and a potential shift in societal strategy to reduce teen screen time.
Another indicator is labor force participation, which has declined significantly over the last several decades. Sean expects the plateau to continue through 2036, with teen labor-force participation holding at 35 percent, while Mike predicts the decline will resume, falling to 25 percent by 2036.
Read Also: Charter Schools Thrive Despite Lower Teacher Pay
Mike’s prediction is based on the expected impact of AI on entry-level work and the replacement of traditional teen jobs with automation. He also notes that the decline in teen jobs is not just a loss of labor, but also a loss of opportunities for teens to learn about “real life” and develop a work ethic.
Teen Sleep Habits
The share of 12th graders who get at least seven hours of sleep most days has fallen, with less than half of high school seniors getting enough sleep. Sean expects the share of high school seniors clocking seven hours of sleep to tick back up to 50 percent by 2036, mostly as a downstream effect of screen time going down.
Mike, on the other hand, does not see a bull case for better sleep, expecting the share of 12th graders getting at least seven hours of sleep to slip to 40 percent by 2036. He argues that teens are less likely to work jobs, which can make them tired, and are also less likely to engage in activities like sports, which can help them sleep better.
The share of high school students reporting persistent sadness or hopelessness has climbed sharply since the mid-2010s. Sean expects the share of teens experiencing these feelings to fall to 32 percent by 2036, driven by increases in sleep and face-to-face interactions, which are positively associated with wellbeing.
Read Also: Chatbots offer varied college advice
Mike, on the other hand, expects the share to hold steady at around 40 percent, with additional distress driven by AI causing white-collar parents to lose their jobs. Economist Tyler Cowen notes that those who lose status are likely to suffer more psychologically than those who gain.
One notable aspect of their predictions is the potential impact of AI on teen life. As AI becomes more prevalent, it may lead to a shift away from traditional screens and towards more immersive and interactive experiences. This could have significant implications for teen mental health and wellbeing, and is an area that Sean and Mike will likely continue to monitor closely. The CDC has already noted the associations between high screen use and anxiety and depression, and it will be important to track how these trends evolve over the next decade.
In terms of sleep habits, the decline in teen jobs and the rise of automation may lead to a decrease in physical activity, which could further exacerbate sleep problems. However, if teens are able to find alternative ways to stay active and engaged, such as through sports or other extracurricular activities, this could help mitigate the negative effects on sleep. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has noted the decline in teen labor force participation, and it will be important to track how this trend affects teen sleep habits and overall wellbeing.
