California’s aging school buildings face a severe test as the state prepares for what climate scientists describe as one of the strongest El Niño events in decades. Heavy rains, storm surges, and potential tornadoes could force widespread school closures, damage infrastructure, and overwhelm districts that have delayed repairs to roofs and levees for years.
Nearly one-fifth of California’s TK-12 public schools are located in floodplains, according to federal flood data. In March 2023, mid-season storms alone led to the shutdown of at least 178 schools across Alameda and Merced counties after levee failures and river overflows. Forecasters now warn of prolonged downpours, wind-driven tides, and mudslides that could exceed even districts’ emergency preparedness plans.
The risks are most acute in coastal and southern regions, where Kelvin waves—slow-moving ocean swells—could raise sea levels for weeks beginning as early as October. Climate scientist Daniel Swain of UC Agriculture and Natural Resources has described the combination of these swells with super king tides, which peak between November and January, as a potential “perfect storm.” His research suggests record-breaking coastal flooding is likely this year.
Many districts are already struggling to address existing issues. At least 59 California school districts plan to seek bond measures in November to repair roofs described as “leaky,” “dilapidated,” or “decaying”—upgrades that may be insufficient against El Niño’s intensity. The California Office of Emergency Services has positioned pumps and sandbags near high-risk zones, but smaller, isolated schools with limited resources will bear the heaviest burden.
Peninsula Union School District in Humboldt County, a TK-8 school with just 61 students, sits only 600 yards from the ocean. Superintendent Raven Coit has trimmed trees and patched roof leaks this year, but her greatest concern is the single access road. Flooding could sever it entirely. “You’ve got leaks and dry rot and all the things that a super wet winter is going to just exacerbate,” said Scott Borba, executive director of the California Small School Districts Association. While district leaders work with other local agencies during weather emergencies, they are largely on their own when making major decisions, such as whether to cancel school. Borba noted that superintendents in vulnerable areas make those calls alone.
Coastal Districts Brace for Record Flooding
Laguna Beach Unified Superintendent Don Austin has seen recent storms erode beaches and destroy homes. His district’s schools already suffer from roof leaks, a problem that will intensify under El Niño conditions. “Living on the coast, I have seen our beaches get washed away with recent storms and homes destroyed,” he said.
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The most severe recent damage occurred in March 2023, when a broken levee flooded Pajaro Middle School near Watsonville, displacing students from a predominantly Mexican immigrant and farmworker community. The school reopened in 2024, but the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers estimates it will take a decade to fully replace the levee. For now, the district depends on neighborhood alerts and contingency plans, though no temporary site has been secured.
Only this time, weather scientists predict El Niño could stress levees to the max, and even bring potential for tornadoes, along with torrential rains, mudslides, storm-driven tides and heavy winds.
Aging Infrastructure Collides with Budget Limits
California’s public schools are aging faster than their repair budgets can address. The state’s more than 10,000 schools include many constructed in the 1950s and 1960s, often below flood levels or in high-risk zones. While some districts have postponed maintenance to prioritize teacher salaries or technology, El Niño forces an urgent reassessment. The problem extends beyond immediate flooding to the cumulative effects of deferred upkeep. An unrepaired leak becomes a structural hazard after prolonged rain, and weakened levees fail under pressure from swollen rivers.
Schools in flood zones frequently serve low-income communities, where families may lack alternative housing or transportation if campuses close. Remote learning is an option, but it is unreliable without power or internet access, both vulnerable to El Niño disruptions. State emergency plans assume local coordination, but smaller districts like Peninsula Union operate with minimal backup.
The first major storms could arrive before November’s bond elections, leaving districts without time to secure funding for repairs. Levee reinforcement projects, such as the $1 million effort near Pajaro, remain years from completion.
Central Valley Schools Face Hidden Flood Risks
The threat is not limited to coastal districts. In the Central Valley, Planada Elementary School, built in 1955 below flood level, suffered severe damage during January 2023 storms when a levee breach sent water through its campus. The school remained closed for weeks while repairs were made, and its high-risk location makes it particularly vulnerable this winter. Unlike larger districts, Planada has limited resources to reinforce aging infrastructure, any approved bond measures would cover only basic repairs, not long-term flood mitigation.
